With the mobilization of Russian reservists and further nuclear threats by Russian President, Vladimir Putin, the specter of nuclear war hangs over the world but contrary to many mainstream voices there is a higher likelihood of escalation than we’d like to admit.
A key component that a lot of commentators don’t factor in, is the culture of macho masculinity that is engrained into Russian culture. A rational argument of Putin not wanting to destroy his own nation by sparking nuclear war makes sense to westerners because we have a different view of what destruction is. The destruction we see in Ukraine of the Russian army is not the thing that Putin is most scared of, it is the destruction of global respect for the Russian Federation.
If we look at the events that led to Putin’s election to office, it was preceded by a reckoning of Russia’s people after the NATO intervention in Serbia, that the world no longer respected them and the west had betrayed them. Putin’s brand of macho-egoism ignited Russian support to make their nation be respected globally again. 50,000 dead Russian men, pales in comparison to the view of Russia’s neighbors that they are no longer a threat in the eyes of Putin.
Nuclear war, or even the start of a conventional war against a NATO member like Estonia, is better for the Russian ego than losing in Ukraine would be. Being able to rationalize that Russia was destroyed because all of Europe and North America had to team up to take them down, is a more honourable stance to take in their minds. Of course, we all know Russia wouldn’t be capable of winning against NATO in a conventional war. They may be able to take ground in Estonia and Lithuania in the few weeks it will take for the alliance to trigger Article 5 and move enough forces into the theatre for a major counter-offensive.
There is also a second, less talked about perspective for Putin. The use of tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine cements Putin’s leadership among the Kremlin elite. As of now, if one of Putin’s cronies overthrew him it is likely that within a year the west would lift sanctions and reapproach Russia which makes Putin susceptible to a coup from within his own ranks. However, if he uses a nuclear weapon nobody from within Putin’s circle could ever take power and expect the west to reopen to Russia in the near future, making a coup pointless. It would be a generation before Russia is ever welcomed into international geopolitics again.
All of these factors make escalation by Russia likely. Innate cultural differences make western logic and rationality around what Putin could do flawed. While we aren’t currently seeing Russian nuclear forces change their disposition, they wouldn’t need to make any major changes for the use of tactical nuclear weapons, since platforms capable of using them are already within firing range. Rumours from within Russia suggest the reported 300,000 reservist call-up is actually going to be closer to 1 million reservists. This in itself is the first major escalation and it is highly unlikely that no further escalations will happen.
The point of this isn’t to scare you or to whip up fear of nuclear war. It’s to inform discussion around what Russia is doing. It’s also to inform us that Putin and Russians don’t view the world the same way we do, the conditions we live in now and the conditions of our history inform how we look at the world. What is rational to us, may not seem rational to others. Westerners using their worldview to examine Russia are making a critical mistake from the start, in order to understand Putin you must think like him too. A quote by Putin sums it up best; if there is no Russia, there is no world.
Layman's Terms 